Chad convincingly proved recently that Boko Haram is not invincible when its assertive president, Idriss Deby, led his troops in an all-out offensive that dislodged the jihadists from his country. In the operation that contrasted sharply with Nigeria’s faltering strategy, the Chadians chased the terrorists beyond their borders and laid down tough diktats. Chad announced that it would no longer shoulder the greater burden of the war on behalf of the four countries bordering Lake Chad and hauntingly gave Nigeria and Niger Republic up till today, April 22, as a deadline to move into the sovereign territories they are holding on their behalf. The ominous threat should make Nigeria uneasy.
The President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) and his generals should strengthen international support, devise a better strategy and launch a determined assault to crush the terror group. The next few days could be crucial: if the military capitalises on the momentum provided by the Chadian success, it may mark the beginning of the end for Boko Haram and its spin-offs. If however, they follow their familiar pattern of allowing the weakened insurgents to recover and regroup, the country’s agony may continue.
Deby was very clear when he addressed his victorious troops in Baga Sola in the Lake Chad area: the Chadian military had cleared Boko Haram and its allied groups from Chadian territory and pursued them into territories in Nigeria and Republic of Niger from where the terrorists were again evicted. He then issued a two-week ultimatum that troops from the two countries should move in to occupy the liberated territories by which time his army would withdraw. And in a blow to the regional coalition against terrorism, he signalled that Chad would henceforth restrict itself to defending its own territory and would no longer make sacrifices to defend the three other countries bordering the lake or station troops outside its borders as it has been doing under the auspices of the Multinational Joint Task Force. “We are able to defend the integrity of our territory. We fought alone in Lake Chad, without the support of the countries supposed to help us,” he said.
This is dangerous. Chad is reckoned by Western aid partners as the most formidable fighting force and bulwark against the terror groups. Boko Haram became a threat to Chad only in 2015, five years after it launched its war in the North-East states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa, according to a timeline by the International Crisis Group. While over 100,000 persons have been killed in Nigeria, over two million others displaced, its economy ruptured and 27 local government areas once occupied by the rebels, Chad has suffered far fewer civilians killed by terrorists operating on the fringes of its lake borders with Nigeria, and later with Niger and Cameroon. Yet, the Chadians have responded more proactively and often more vigorously. Indeed, it was that country’s military and law enforcement support for Nigeria that provoked Boko Haram into attacking its soldiers and civilians.
Nigeria should not allow the military coalition to collapse. Chad’s frustrations should be addressed immediately. Deby’s complaint that Chad is shouldering the burden of the war against Boko Haram is a serious indictment of Nigeria, whose military should ordinarily lead the campaign.
Similarly, Chad swiftly prosecutes captured terror suspects and unlike Nigeria where prosecutions and convictions have not matched the scale of their holocaust. In February, Nigeria released another batch of 1,400 suspects under a dubious de-radicalisation programme.
The relocation of the Chief of Army Staff, Tukur Buratai, to Maiduguri to lead the offensive is therefore welcome. But much more needs to be done. Hopefully, the routing and killing of 105 jihadists in Yobe signals that shift. It will, however, make a difference if effective intelligence-led strategies are adopted, better coordination between Army and the Nigerian Air Force, the troops well-equipped and their flagging morale lifted. No effort should be spared to locate and eliminate the bloodthirsty jihadist leader, Abubakar Shekau.
Chad’s defence minister complained recently that for six months, the Western-backed regional force had not been funded. This should change drastically. Being the birthplace of Boko Haram, Nigeria should be the main driver of international cooperation to defeat the jihadists.
Nigeria needs all the help it can get to defeat Boko Haram and its pervasive and negative ideology. The war has taken a very high toll on the society, economy and the military. The African Development Bank estimates that the quantitative cost of the war on the economy is about 0.82 per cent of GDP lost per annum. Evidence shows that terrorism leads to the reallocation of economic activity away from private investment spending to government spending on defence infrastructure.
Boko Haram should be treated like ISIS. Therefore, the US and the United Kingdom assistance needs to be scaled up to full air support and many more boots on the ground: countries do not fight the adaptable salafi jihadism alone and hope to succeed. By April 2018, the US had 1,000 personnel in Mali, 800 in Niger and 300 in Cameroon. France sent 600 extra troops in February to boost its combat troop presence in the Sahel to 4,500, spread through Niger, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso and Mauritania. It took a military coalition of 17 countries and many others providing funding and humanitarian aid to evict ISIS from Iraq. Buhari should do everything possible to attract such a coalition.
Nigeria missed an opportunity when it failed to launch a simultaneous assault with Chad. Urgent efforts should be made to persuade Chad to rejoin in a final coordinated multi-pronged attack by all the MNJTF partners. Unless they are taken out everywhere, dislodging terrorists in one country affords them the opportunity to regroup and threaten the entire region.
The allied mission is not to contain Boko Haram but to defeat and destroy it completely. Without a formidable air support, well-trained, properly equipped and professionally coordinated alliance, it will be impossible to achieve this. Winning the war will also require accurate use of high-end Special Forces, moving in police, other security and civil administration personnel into liberated territory as it is not possible for the Army to remain in every cleared area.
Buhari should order the redeployment of part of the 150,000 policemen on guard duty with VIPs for the task of holding liberated towns and villages if he wants his regime to win the horrible war.
