Buffeted all round by corruption, ineptitude, collapsed or decayed infrastructure and a visible absence of critically needed investible funds, Nigeria’s ailing power sector is now on the brink of total collapse. Perhaps only a drastic intervention by the government can pull it out of its death throes. But things cannot just be allowed to continue this way.
Two and a half years after it was privatised by the erstwhile Goodluck Jonathan government, under the Electric Power Sector Reform programme, the electricity situation in Nigeria has progressively moved from bad to worse, with businesses and households that depend on public power supply for their survival now contending with higher and arbitrary tariff and extended periods of power outage.
While investors who acquired the unbundled components of the then public utility – the Power Holding Company of Nigeria – appear to lack the wherewithal to make the sector work efficiently, and may have thus given up on further pursuit of that line of action, sadly, the regulatory authorities seem to have completely run out of ideas on what to do to change the fortunes of this critical sector.
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission has become a toothless bulldog that regularly barks out instructions that are neither meant to be obeyed, nor enforced. At times when there is a clear violation of regulations that should attract sanctions, the commission has ended up siding with the rent-seeking electricity distribution companies, to the detriment of hapless consumers.
Admittedly, the situation has been appalling for a long time. But it has become even worse in recent times, with reports of many electricity consumers going for weeks on end without supply. The drone of generators at practically every time of the day and everywhere has raised the noise decibel, posing fresh threats to public health. In some places, it has sparked public protests by consumers who mass up on the premises of the DisCos, especially the unmetered customers who are expected to pay anyway, whether there is supply of electricity or not.
Vandalism of facilities, especially pipelines supplying gas to thermal stations, is often singled out for blame for the poor electricity supply. Specifically, the current crisis has been linked to the damage done to the Forcados Terminal in Delta State in February. “It is a major source of gas; about 40 per cent of our gas supply is affected, leading to the problem of power supply in the country,” Vice-President, Yemi Osinbajo, lamented during his recent inspection visit to the place.
Notwithstanding the role of vandals, the truth is that there is no redeeming feature in the whole gamut of the power sector, from generation, through transmission, to distribution. Is it not shameful that a country with the largest economy in Africa and an estimated population of over 170 million people relies on electricity generation capacity of between 4,000 and 5,000 megawatts? How can the economy grow and create jobs in such circumstances?
Even that output, which represents the peak period performance, can sometimes be wiped off in a flash, as was the case on March 31 when there was a system collapse. During that period, the 11 distribution companies reportedly received no load allocation until power was restored. When there is no system collapse, the available power at the disposal of the whole country stands at between 2,000MW and 3,000MW for most of the time, just a little above the 1,900MW being generated when the civilian government took over in 1999.
Besides, whenever generation tops the 5,000MW mark, there is the risk of a system collapse due to the lack of capacity of the Transmission Company of Nigeria to cope with the excess load. That in itself has imposed a cap on how much power can be available to Nigerians at any given time. No matter the progress made with the generation, it will be useless if there is no expansion of the transmission capacity.
Also worrisome is the ongoing industrial dispute between the government and the staff over the alleged non-payment of severance entitlement of some workers from the privatised PHCN. This resulted in workers being locked out of the headquarters of the TCN, with subtle threats of closing down the company completely. Such an action, needless to say, could lead to nationwide power outage.
This whole mess was not envisaged when Jonathan launched his Roadmap for Power Sector Reform shortly before his election in 2011, resulting in the consummation of the power sector privatisation of November 2013. According to the roadmap, power generation was expected to reach 40,000MW by 2020, while privatisation would generate investments “of at least $3.5 billion per annum for the next 10 years.”
These are investments that were meant to upgrade the fuel-to-power infrastructure, as well as the transmission and distribution networks. It was then clearly stated that “these sums cannot and will not be funded and directed by the Federal Government.” But, with the power sector ending up in wrong hands due to the bungling of the exercise, the government itself is now becoming the major driver of future investments, a clear evidence of a gamble that has gone awry.
So far, none of the goals of capital inflow and improvement in service delivery, where managers of the sector would be held accountable, have been achieved. Rather, it has been a story of consumers being made to draw the short straw; the same old story of estimated billing, chronic electric power supply shortages, frequent upward tariff review and defying of orders by the supposed regulators, who look on helplessly.
The situation calls for a meeting of all stakeholders for stocktaking. Things cannot continue this way. The power situation has affected the country’s economy; Nigeria ranks 182nd in access to electricity out of 189 countries surveyed in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business 2016 Rank. According to the International Energy’s World Energy Outlook, 2015, 96 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, contrasting sharply with countries such as Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia where there is virtually 100 per cent access. There is the need to review the current situation just to save the country from an impending doom.
It is absolutely crucial that the government devotes sufficient time and energy, quickly too, to solve the problem of inadequate electricity in the country. It is, needless to say, perhaps the most important issue that must be urgently addressed. It is disheartening that, one-year in, there are no clear road-maps from the government regarding how it plans to solve the problem.