Nigeria experienced a staggering 20,472 fatalities and injuries resulting from 5,291 separate incidents of violence between 2020 and 2024.
Presenting its annual violent conflict report 2025, Nextier – a non-governmental organisation – said its Violent Conflicts Database revealed that Nigeria recorded 43 incidents of terrorism and 1,306 bandit attacks in 2024.
Nextier Managing Partner, Dr Ndubuisi Nwokolo stated this at a press conference in Abuja on Wednesday.
According to him, the organization conducted an in-depth examination of patterns in violent conflict by leveraging data from its comprehensive database.
Titled ‘Mutations of terror and conflict’, the report identified five external factors that will shape Nigeria’s security in 2025 namely: the war in Sudan; expansion of terrorist groups across Sahel states; Nigeria’s closer relations with France amidst rejection by Sahel countries; electoral outcomes in neighbouring countries and Russia’s increasing influence in Africa.
The organization sounded a warning that the persistence of illegal mining activities in the North West geopolitical zone has been fueling the arming of bandits, rendering the region increasingly lawless and vulnerable to further exploitation.
The report disclosed that a total of 11,002 persons were kidnapped between June 2020 and December 2024, with the North-West being the most impacted region.
The report stated that while farmer-herder conflict was more pronounced in the North Central and North West, 2,347 casualties were recorded in 359 violent incidents involving farmers and herders between 2020 and 2024.
“In the year 2024 alone, Nigeria recorded a total of 467 casualties in 61 violent incidents involving farmers and herders. The North Central topped the chart with 416 or 89.1 per cent of the total casualties and 42 or 68.9 per cent of the violent incidents involving farmers and herders.
“Other violent incidents identified in the report are cultism, Communal clashes, gunmen attacks, extrajudicial killings and violent protests. Between June 2020 and December 2024, a total of 2,988 incidents of cult clashes resulting in 695 casualties were recorded across Nigeria. Incidents of cult clashes and related casualties rose continuously from 2020 and peaked in 2022, reaching 224 casualties in 92 cult clash incidents. However, both incidents and casualties declined steadily from 2023 to 2024,” the report stated.
To tackle terrorism, it tasked government to continue with kinetic and non-kinetic approaches by better equipping the military, ensure that improved defence and security spendings reflect on the security sector outcomes.
While saying that terrorism and bandity in 2025 would be defined by various factors, particularly the expansion of the new terrorist group, Lakurawa, it called on government to ‘focus on enhancing its penetrative and regulative capacity in all parts of its territorial space’.
“In 2025, the trend of secessionism will be determined by how the Nigerian government handles Mazi Nnamdi Kanu’s continued incarceration and its engagement with the Finnish government over the extradition of Simon Ekpa.
“Kidnapping in 2025 will be determined by factors such as adequate utilisation of increased budgetary allocation to defence and security, invigoration of local vigilantes by state governments, and an increase in the volume of cash in circulation.
“Farmer-herder conflict will be determined by factors such as the capacity of the newly established Ministry of Livestock Development and the Presidential Committee on Livestock Reforms to drive reforms.
“Four key factors will determine the trend of political conflicts in 2025. First, there are ongoing ethnic tensions between the Igbo and Yoruba ethnic groups. Second, there is the ongoing godfather conflict in Rivers State. Third, there is information dislocation and hate speech. Fourth, there are the permutations for the 2027 general elections and a number of off-cycle elections across the country” it stated.
It called on the Nigerian government to seriously consider releasing the leader of the outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Nnamdi Kanu, in order to separate Biafra agitators from bandits.
