Although the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has put 28 political parties on the ballot for tomorrow’s governorship election in Ondo State, three dominant parties appear to have forced themselves into the people’s consciousness, making the contest a three-horse race.
As the front runners – the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alliance for Democracy (AD) and All Progressives Congress (APC) – round off their campaigns today, pundits would have began an uneasy permutation about the possible outcome of tomorrow’s contest with no one ready to place a bet on any of the three leading candidates: Prof. Eyitayo Jegede (PDP), Chief Olusola Oke (AD) and Mr. Rotimi Akeredolu (APC).
INEC, nonetheless, said yesterday that it was set to conduct the election in which 1,280,580 citizens with permanent voters’ cards (PVC), out of 1,660,055 registered voters, are expected to cast their votes in the 3,010 polling units across the 18 local government areas of the state.
Earlier in the week, the Inspector-General of Police (IG), Mr. Ibrahim Idris, said the security services were prepared to secure the election. He said 26,000 police personnel, sniffer dogs, horses, three helicopters and 300 vehicles, including 12 armoured personnel carriers and armoured Hilux vans, were ready for deployment in the state for the exercise.
Without a doubt, the tension in the state before the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court resolved the quarrel in the PDP for its ticket between Jegede and Mr. Jimoh Ibrahim on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, must have necessitated this elaborate security arrangement.
Even with the clarity over the candidate of the ruling PDP in the state, the raised stakes in the contest by power blocs both in Akure and Abuja, and perhaps Lagos, must have left the police boss with no other option than to raise a war-like operation to provide tight security. The political tension in the state was heated up by discontent arising from the primaries of the PDP and the APC.
It began with the APC, where Mr. Olusegun Abraham, the preferred candidate of Senator Bola Tinubu, its National Leader, was defeated by Akeredolu with the backing of some powerful political forces said to be working for the presidency in Abuja. Alleging unfair dealings, Tinubu complained loudly, calling for the resignation of the National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun. In the meantime, his candidate’s supporters took to the streets of Akure to ventilate their grievances. When he got no redress, his candidate went to court, even as Oke, who came third behind Abraham left the party, first to the Action Alliance, then to AD.
Actually, the APC in the South-west has its roots in the AD, from where the Action Congress of Nigeria, one of the legacy parties of the former, arose. Although Tinubu made no public announcement about a shift in loyalty from the APC, all his foot soldiers, including Mr. Bola Ilori, the Director-General, Olusola Oke Campaign Organisation, and the party’s failed deputy governorship candidate in the 2015 Kogi State governorship election, Hon. James Faleke, have since turned his huge political machinery over to AD’s Oke.
Tinubu’s political structures and substantial funding were all the AD and its candidate, Oke, needed to rise from obscurity to prominence, challenging the dominance of the APC and the ruling PDP, which was embroiled in a dispute over the nomination of its candidate for the election.
Ordinarily, had the contest remained a two-horse race between the PDP and the APC, the former would probably have prevailed given its incumbency advantage and the awesome political machinery of Governor Olusegun Mimiko put together more than a decade ago. But the factional fight at the national level that reverberated in the state weakened the chances of the PDP, as its attention was diverted from the intense electioneering required for electoral success, to the judicial battle for survival. Valuable time was lost between the substitution of Jegede with Ibrahim by INEC and the eventual reinstatement of the latter, creating uncertainty among PDP members and canvassers even as Mimiko shuttled between Abuja and Akure, weighing his options had the courts failed to restore his candidate.
Indeed, a combination of factors have colluded to balance the influence of the three leading parties in the state, making tomorrow’s election an open race that is too close to call. But the demography of voters across the three senatorial districts of the state with respect to the dialectical balance of the parties’ ticket might tilt the contest in favour of PDP’s Jegede.
Coming from the high voter Ondo Central Senatorial District that accounts for 39.78 per cent of the PVCs, Jegede whose running mate, Mr. Ola Mafo, comes from the equally populous Ondo South with 33.12 per cent, might have a demographic advantage if his people decide to vote en bloc for him. This is more so because whereas Oke, also from Ondo South, and Akeredolu, from Ondo North with 27.1 per cent, have opposing party running mates (PDP’s Mafo and AD’s Alhaji Ganiyu Dauda, respectively) who are expected to split the votes in their districts, Jegede has no opposition running mate to reduce his anticipated haul.
Two other factors are likely to weigh in the favour of Jegede: money and a possible collaboration with Oke against Akeredolu. If the contest becomes transactional like it was in the recent governorship election in Edo State, then Jegede may well be on his way to the Alagbaka Government House in Akure. Besides, initial restraint exercised by the oil-rich and wealthy Niger Delta governments in the hands of the PDP because of the substitution of Jegede might now be relaxed with the prospect of huge funds coming the way of the Jegede campaign machine.
Although the APC with its federal might muster much more funds in aid of Akeredolu, indications, however, are that President Muhammadu Buhari, in spite of his open support for his party’s candidate, is not inclined to deploying state funds to such a venture. Meanwhile, a split in the ranks of APC governors owing to the disenchantment of their national leader threatens to weaken Akeredolu’s capacity to raise substantial funds from neigbouring states.
Finally, with Akeredolu being viewed as the common enemy by both Tinubu and Mimiko — Oke and Jegede’s principals — a last minute collusion between the two could edge him out of contention. But who would the conspirators chose? Is it Jegede or Oke? This, perhaps, is the reason the race remains open. – Thisday.
