A six-year investigation by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) has reported that 79,323 people were killed in terrorism-related violence across Nigeria between 2020 and 2025, while 34,773 civilians were abducted during the same period.
The findings were unveiled in a report titled, “Four Times Boko Haram? How the World Misreads Nigeria’s Violence,” and announced in a statement signed by ORFA Senior Research Analyst, Frans Vierhout, in Jos, yesterday.
According to the report, the violence translated into an average of seven attacks and 36 deaths per day.
ORFA stated that of the total deaths recorded, 42,033 were civilians, while 37,290 involved security personnel and members of armed groups.
The organisation said its researchers spent years analysing and cross-checking attack patterns, adding that the findings challenged prevailing assumptions about the drivers of insecurity in Nigeria.
According to the report, Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province, ISWAP, often identified as major actors in Nigeria’s insurgency, accounted for 12 per cent of civilian deaths recorded during the period; Boko Haram, eight per cent; and ISWAP four per cent.
ORFA further claimed that armed groups it classified as “Fulani Terror Groups” were responsible for 44 per cent of civilian killings, amounting to 18,577 deaths, compared with 4,941 deaths attributed to Boko Haram and ISWAP combined.
The organisation, however, stressed that it distinguished between armed groups and the Fulani ethnic population, noting that the overwhelming majority of Fulani people were not involved in violence.
Commenting on the findings, Vierhout said ORFA’s analysis considered attack patterns, targets, operational locations and seasonal trends.
“The data makes this difficult to ignore. We examined how killings occur, who is targeted, where attacks take place and seasonal fluctuations. The evidence points strongly in one direction,” he said.
ORFA argued that international attention had focused disproportionately on Boko Haram while, in its view, underestimating other forms of organised violence in the country.
On abductions, the report documented 34,773 civilian kidnapping cases during the review period, attributing 43 per cent to groups it classified as “Fulani Terror Groups” and 49 per cent to “Unidentified Terror Groups”.
The report also highlighted what it described as a religious dimension to the violence, stating that 28,551 Christians and 13,224 Muslims were killed during the period under review.
ORFA further claimed that Christian victims in affected states were killed at a higher rate relative to population distribution.
In a related publication, titled “Captivity by Creed: The Religious Sorting System Nobody Talks About,” Senior Research Analyst, Steven Kefas, cited survivor testimonies alleging differences in the treatment of Christian and Muslim hostages.
According to the publication, Christian captives were more likely to face higher ransom demands, longer negotiation periods, harsher treatment and a greater risk of execution, while Christian women reportedly faced a higher risk of sexual violence.
The organisation said Christian abductions stood at 15,932, compared with 15,272 among Muslims.
ORFA added that 75 per cent of civilian deaths occurred during attacks on farming communities involving abductions, sexual violence and destruction of property.
It said the study compiled up to 60 data points per incident from five data streams, including field research, local partners, academic sources, media and NGO reports, as well as verified social media content.
The organisation called for broader recognition of what it described as the religious dimensions of violence in Nigeria, arguing that efforts to address insecurity would remain incomplete without considering those factors.
