The “letter,” actually a public statement, that former president Olusegun Obasanjo wrote to President Muhammadu Buhari last week generated the highest interest in this country and could be a taste of 2019 things to come. At a time when some APC governors, South East APC leaders and numerous support groups are nudging Buhari closer to a decision to seek a second term in office, Obasanjo poured sand in their garri, declared that the administration has failed in many areas and firmly advised Buhari not to seek another term in office.
Obasanjo said he was “constrained to issue this special statement at this time considering the situation of the country.” He likened the situation to a Yoruba proverb that ‘when lice abound in your clothes, your fingernails will never be dried of blood.’ He said, “The lice of poor performance in government, poverty, insecurity, poor economic management, nepotism, gross dereliction of duty, condonation of misdeed [if not outright encouragement of it], lack of progress and hope for the future, lack of national cohesion and poor management of internal political dynamics and widening inequality are very much with us today.” He said, “With such lice of general and specific poor performance and crying poverty with us, our fingers will not be dry of ‘blood.’
Obasanjo said, “The situation that made Nigerians to vote massively to get my brother Jonathan off the horse is playing itself out again.” He said he always knew that President Buhari is weak “in the knowledge and understanding of the economy” and also “his weakness in understanding and playing in the foreign affairs sector.” Both could have been ameliorated if the right human resource was tapped but this was not done, Obasanjo said. He praised Buhari for recording some achievements in fighting corruption and insurgency but then reeled out many more damning accusations. They include “serious allegations of round-tripping against some inner caucus of the Presidency which would seem to have been condoned;” failure to find a solution to the clashes between farmers and herdsmen; “nepotic deployment bordering on clannishness and inability to bring discipline to bear on errant members of his nepotic court;” “his poor understanding of the dynamics of internal politics” which Obasanjo said has made Nigeria more divided and has widened inequality; and “passing the buck,” including blaming the Central Bank Governor for 70% devaluation of the naira.
The former president then said “whatever may be the state of President Buhari’s health today, he should neither over-push his luck nor over-tax the patience and tolerance of Nigerians” by seeking a second term. He added that “President Buhari needs a dignified and honourable dismount from the horse. He needs to have time to reflect, refurbish physically and recoup and after appropriate rest,” join the ranks of elder statesmen. He then called for the formation of “a Coalition for Nigeria, CN,” which he said will be a movement of well-meaning Nigerians “to salvage and redeem our country.”
Two days later, Minister of Information and National Orientation Alhaji Lai Mohammed delivered government’s answer. It was very carefully couched and conciliatory; it addressed Obasanjo in very respectful terms, obviously to avoid an escalation. The minister said, “We have read the press statement by former President Olusegun Obasanjo on the State of the Nation. For the record, Chief Obasanjo is a patriot and he has proven this time and time again.”
Alhaji Lai thanked Obasanjo for acknowledging Buhari’s good scores in fighting corruption and tackling insurgency, which he said were two of its three main campaign planks. He said the administration also scored appreciably with respect to the third plank, which is the economy, but “we believe that Chief Obasanjo, because of his very busy schedule, may not have been fully availed of developments in the government’s efforts to revamp the economy.” He said by most indices the economy is picking up and he cited as evidence foreign reserves that have peaked at $40b, the highest level in about four years; headline inflation has fallen for 11 consecutive months, according to National Bureau of Statistics; implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) saved 108 billion Naira; elimination of ghost workers saved 120 billion Naira; high capital inflows of $1.8 billion in second quarter of 2017; a stable naira; Nigeria rose 24 places on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business ranking; agriculture export is up year-on-year by 25%; solid minerals exports are up year-on-year by 78%; government agencies such as the Nigeria Customs Service are reporting highest-ever revenue collection while JAMB remitted N7.8 billion to government coffers, compared to N51m it remitted in 2010-2016.
Both sides have now had their say. For Nigerians, the first wonder is that Obasanjo, a man who notoriously sought a third term in office for himself, would now advise someone else not to seek a second term. Many Nigerians do not trust Obasanjo’s letter-writing habits either because in the last thirty years, he wrote letters or made public statements that lampooned nearly every government except the one he headed. APC leaders may also say that Obasanjo has no electoral value so his views could be disregarded.
However, what Obasanjo lacks in electoral value, he more than makes up for in nuisance value. His letters send shock waves not only across Nigeria but across Africa and the world as well. They could have much impact in many foreign circles. What Obasanjo lacks in personal credibility, he also has in detecting fault in others. His two letters to former president Goodluck Jonathan gave an enormous psychological boost to the effort to oust the former regime. Therefore, for the Buhari administration the best advice is, forget the messenger but look carefully into his message. Some of it may have the ring of truth.
