Three terror attacks in less than three months, including two in two weeks, have undoubtedly shaken the confidence of the United Kingdom authorities as they rally to confront an escalation of violent extremism they may not be accustomed to dealing with on a regular basis. Barring the major incidents of July 7, 2005, when four Islamist extremists detonated bombs on London tubes and buses, claiming 52 lives, with over 700 injured, the country had experienced a relative calm amidst the bombing rage that has hit other European countries such as France, Germany and Belgium in recent times.
But with the Islamic State actors attempting to extend their theatre of operation far beyond their present confines, there appears to be a new twist to the terror war. ISIS claimed responsibility for the three tragic incidents, which could presage a wider range of global violence, in the coming days. Since the 2005 incidents, Britain had only suffered minor attacks such as the Leytonstone tube station stabbing, which recorded no fatality, and the fatal stabbing of Fusilier Lee Rigby, an unarmed soldier, by two British-Nigerian Islamist extremists, Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale.
But the UK’s myth of calmness was unexpectedly shattered in March when a 52-year-old British man, Khalid Masood, ploughed a rented car into the sidewalk on Westminster Bridge, near the House of Parliament, killing two people instantly, while some others died in the hospital. Not done yet, he alighted from the vehicle, brandishing a knife with which he fatally attacked a policeman mounting guard at a courtyard frequented by members of parliament. In all, the attack reportedly claimed six lives, leaving over 50 others injured.
The latest London attack came just as mourners were still drying their tears after a suicide bomber had struck outside a concert venue in Manchester on May 22, claiming 22 lives and injuring 116. It was an imitation of the March incident as a driver barrelled into some pedestrians on London Bridge, leaving eight people dead and 48 injured. Does anyone need any further evidence of the widening scope of terrorism?
In the words of Curtis M. Scaparrotti, a NATO commander, the Westminster Bridge attack only underscored the growing influence of ISIS or individuals inspired by the group in Europe. The army general, who also heads the United States European Command, said, “Europe is challenged by both the flow of terrorists returning to Europe from Syria and other places…” and internal threat of “those inspired by ISIS or directed by ISIS.” He believes Europe faces more threats from terrorists than any other part of the world.
For those familiar with the modus operandi of terrorist groups, what is happening in the UK would not come as a surprise. With ISIS being smoked out of its so-called caliphate in Iraq and Syria, it is only natural for the terrorists to go after soft targets elsewhere, including Africa. The group, which took the world by storm by capturing swathes of territories in Syria and Iraq, has come under serious bombardments and is rapidly losing grip of its prized territories.
By masterminding attacks outside the Middle East, ISIS tries to distract attention from the war and prove its “invincibility.” The attacks fuel the belief that even if they lose in Iraq and Syria, the evil ideology that underpins their activities can never be defeated. Their intention is to strike maximum fear into people and also get as much publicity as possible. It is part of their tactics to restrategise whenever they are losing ground in the battle for territorial control.
Here in Nigeria, there has been an increased tempo in suicide bombings since the military and the Civilian Joint Task Force chased the Boko Haram members out of their comfort zone in the infamous Sambisa Forest. The group, which pledged allegiance to ISIS in March, 2015 has also resorted to guerilla warfare and lying in ambush for the military, which calls for more reliance on intelligence to detect them before they strike. On Wednesday, coordinated attacks by Boko Haram in Maiduguri led to the death of 17 persons, police said.
To be able to sustain the terror, ISIS has built a formidable war chest from oil smuggling, extortion, theft, human trafficking and kidnapping for ransom. According to a 2014 report by The Independent, a UK-based newspaper, ISIS controlled up to 11 oil fields in both Iraq and Syria and made between $2 million and $3 million daily from oil sales. When oil was going for $100 per barrel, ISIS smugglers were ready to sell for between $25 and $60 per barrel.
So, undoubtedly degraded, ISIS still has enough resources to cause damage in the West, or anywhere else. As its members flee from the battlefield, they constitute a mortal danger to whichever society chooses to take them in. Apart from encouraging new recruits to join the fight in Iraq and Syria, the group uses the social media to carry out serious radicalisation of impressionable minds and encourages lone wolf attacks.
What the recent attacks have shown is just how difficult it is to prevent terrorists from carrying out their nefarious acts, especially those who are ready to die to achieve their horrific objectives. It is very difficult to detect who is assembling a bomb, but it is even more challenging to know who wants to plough a vehicle into a group of pedestrians. Britain has for the past 12 years prevented major terror incidents in its territory, but has now recorded three in three months. So, whatever the security agencies were doing in the past, they have to do more. Intelligence is the name of the game and whatever information is available should not be taken lightly. Failure to share intelligence is equally fatal. There must be a new approach in the detection and prioritisation of terror threats; surveillance and information sharing among states.
