Despite increasing difficulties in propping up its crumbling so-called caliphate in the Middle East, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has not forsaken its Nigerian affiliate, which has been going through some equally troubling times in the hands of the country’s military. In a move that very few anticipated, the terror group sought to cement its influence over Boko Haram by effecting a leadership change that has propelled the erstwhile spokesman, Abu Musab al-Barnawi, to the apex at the expense of the former leader, Abubakar Shekau.
Given the reactions so far, the import of this change may have been lost on many. To the military who are already celebrating victory over Boko Haram – the Nigerian homegrown terror group that has been engaging the country in an asymmetric warfare with a view to eventually carving out a caliphate of its own – the change in leadership is a mere distraction by a group already in its death throes. To some others, what is of interest is the leadership tussle that has evolved between al-Barnawi and Shekau, the successor to the group’s founder, Muhammad Yusuf, who was killed in a clash with security forces in 2009.
With the group now splintered, it would appear as if the military could be right to assume that the spine of Boko Haram has been broken for good. But the truth is that this is the time to be more vigilant and ensure that, like a seemingly dead snake that is yet to be decapitated, it does not come charging back. For ISIS to take interest in the leadership of Boko Haram is an indication of the high regard in which the terror group responsible for more than 20,000 deaths in the North-East of Nigeria over the past seven years is held. This is not altogether surprising as Boko Haram, which was described by the Global Terrorism Index as the deadliest terror organisation in the world in 2014, after being responsible for 6,644 deaths as against 6,073 by ISIS, has already emerged as a force to reckon with in Islamist terrorism.
In the course of its violent existence, Boko Haram has also created a monumental humanitarian crisis in the North-East region of Nigeria and the neighbouring countries of Chad, Cameroon and Niger Republic. Among other things, the group enhanced its notoriety by bombing the United Nations building and the police headquarters in Abuja, while still keeping Chibok 218 schoolgirls it kidnapped more than two years ago in its custody. Its activities have spawned the displacement of over 2.4 million persons, making it “the fastest growing displacement crisis in Africa,” according to the Head, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Kate Pond, in May.
Besides being the top dog in terrorism, Boko Haram switched allegiance from al-Qaeda in the Maghreb to ISIS in March last year, during which time Shekau was quoted as saying, “We announce our allegiance to the caliph … and will hear and obey in times of difficulty and prosperity.” After the pledge of allegiance, to which the ISIS spokesman, Abu Mohammed al Adnani, on behalf of the “caliph,” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, encouraged jihadists to join forces with Boko Haram, the group was immediately rechristened Islamic State’s West African Province.
Dismissing the recent ISIS intervention in the choice of Boko Haram leadership as a distraction, as done by the military, could be a fatal error of judgment comparable only to the reaction of the then Commissioner, Borno State Police Command, Ibrahim Abdu, who, likewise, dismissed the threats of Shekau to unleash mayhem on the state on the first anniversary of Yusuf’s death in 2010. “(But) to the best of my knowledge, Shekau and Mohammed Yusuf are dead. If anyone can identify them and tell us their location, we are ready to act. But to us, they are dead,” the police boss reportedly said then. The sanguinary exploits of Boko Haram under the reign of Shekau have since exposed the folly of such a hasty proclamation.
With the group – which, at the height of its savagery in 2014, declared its own caliphate with Gwoza as the capital – now fighting with its back to the wall, it is clear that the leadership change is meant to breathe a new life into its activities. This is already evident in the way al-Barnawi has been talking tough since his leadership was announced. He has promised to reclaim Boko Haram’s lost territory in the North-East while making life unbearable for Christians. According to him, his group will blow up “every church that we are able to reach and kill all those who we find from the citizens of the cross (Christians).”
What makes Boko Haram in its present form very dangerous is the fact that if ISIS is dislodged from the Middle East, Nigeria is one of the most likely places it could turn to. The jihadists are already finding the going very tough in Syria and Iraq, where they have been forced to retreat in ground battles, aided by aerial bombardments by Russian and the American war planes. In Libya, another place where the presence of ISIS was growing in the recent past, government forces have been sending the Islamists packing in bloody battles, especially in their stronghold in Sirte.
Rather than celebrate victory, the Nigerian military should draw on their intelligence and secure the military expertise of its allies to ensure that the itinerant jihadists do not make Nigeria their abode. They have a habit of opening up new fronts after losing in a particular area. That was the case when al-Qaeda, in collaboration with the Tuaregs and other rebels, almost succeeded in taking over the whole of Mali after they were chased out of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nigeria should not shy away from seeking help, if need be, from countries with counter-terrorism experience, since the war against terror is one that transcends boundaries. The task of maintaining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country is one that must be done.
