President Muhammadu Buhari returned to Nigeria 103 days after he departed on yet another sick leave to attend to a still undisclosed illness. He returned to a country that is riven by mutual suspicion along ethnic and sectarian lines, deepening insecurity and an economy in recession, and with neither a firm direction nor a steady hand on the wheel. To avoid an implosion, he should reclaim his administration and provide the firm leadership that Nigerians expected of him when he assumed office on May 29, 2015.
Like almost all events in Nigeria in recent times, his illness and absence from duty have reopened the deepening fissures in the polity, provoking protests and support in equal measure. But more damaging has been the inertia in governance that has held back the economy, crucial administrative measures and fostered confusion at the highest levels.
In a terse broadcast on Monday, Buhari did acknowledge the urgency of defeating Boko Haram and ending the Fulani herdsmen rampage. But he missed his way again by repeating the mantra that “Nigeria’s unity is not negotiable.” Actually, it is and he had better climb down from that shaky pedestal. Buhari should not be lulled into complacency by the effusions of welcome or sympathy that attended his return across the country. Divisions within the Nigerian polity have seen a spike in the clamour for a fundamental restructuring of the country to make it a true federation and end institutionalised injustice: some fringe groups insist on outright secession, while the truce brokered with armed groups in the Niger Delta region, shaky at best, has virtually broken down. The militants are back to their old trade of sabotaging oil production facilities.
Add to this the recent resurgence of Boko Haram with frequent suicide bombings, sacking of villages and military outposts and their favourite sport of kidnapping women and girls. According to rights groups, though military action reduced the number of civilians killed by Boko Haram from 3,500 in 2015 to about 550 in 2016, that number may rise again this year.
Aside from corruption, Buhari was viewed by voters as tough on crime, but Fulani herdsmen, emboldened by official inaction over “cycles of uncontrolled and unpunished” atrocities in the Middle-Belt region have spread their impunity nationwide, killing, pillaging and raping in farming communities, according to Human Rights Watch. Nigeria is now ranked among the Top 10 kidnap territories in the world, while piracy on the coast has surpassed the dubious feats of Somali pirates.
There is despair and despondency in the land. The economy, according to an alarm raised in July by the Central Bank of Nigeria, may not exit recession as predicted by the third quarter of this year unless urgent fiscal policy measures are taken to arrest high inflation and stagnation, twin afflictions that Godwin Emefiele, its governor, said could plunge the economy into a disastrous depression that we are institutionally ill-equipped to handle.
The first priority for the President is to put his obviously divided house in order. In-fighting by key agencies and personalities in the Presidency have spilled into the public sphere; Buhari needs to properly coordinate the anti-graft war which is faltering partly due to rivalry among security agencies, lack of sound strategy and failure to clean up the judiciary and the civil service. Some key appointees are not enthusiastic about the anti-corruption crusade. There can be no success where N400 billion in bribes is estimated to have changed hands in one year; police and judges, customs, immigration and the ministries are irredeemably corrupt. Two years on, he needs to produce some high profile convictions in a country where some 55 public officials reportedly stole $9 billion between 2006 and 2013. He should name a coordinator for the onslaught and vest him with the full weight of his office.
Buhari should immediately remove his political appointees, who have failed and tarnished his administration. He should move quickly to have a more inclusive team. The security agencies need to be refocused to deploy intelligence and technology for effective crime fighting rather than brute force. He should initiate reforms for the security system that was last restructured in 1986/7 despite the new and monstrous security challenges of the 21st century.
In times of economic pressure, tension expresses itself in crime and divisiveness. With figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showing that 3.67 million workers lost their jobs in the 12 months to September 2016 and continued factory closures – 272 in 2016 says Manufacturers Association of Nigeria – restive youths are taking to crime, risking perilous journeys in search of greener pastures abroad or falling for extremist messages. Buhari needs an effective economic stimulus programme targeted at reducing the explosive 47.4 per cent youth unemployment, boosting agriculture, mining, manufacturing, SMEs and start-ups. This requires having a sense of urgency to replace the leisurely pace of this administration. There should be closer, stronger engagement with the private sector. Rejuvenating the economy should involve strengthening and empowering the economic team.
As the 2019 elections are approaching fast, Buhari needs all hands on deck to help him clean the economic mess. There is an urgent need for sound macroeconomic management, especially the faithful implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, which is aimed at diversifying the economy and the restoration of peace and stability in the Niger Delta. To lessen the strain on the budget, Buhari should embark on a rapid privatisation of state-owned enterprises: the dubious deals underway in the refineries should be halted. To end the outrageous N4.7 trillion spent importing refined products in 2016, only transparent, fast sell-offs will succeed. Corruption-free sale of aviation, steel, NIPP power and downstream oil, and gas assets offers a better route to attracting the much-needed Foreign Direct Investment that fell by $4.5 billion in 2016 than endless borrowing from the wily Chinese.
Buhari’s approach of papering over the cracks of Nigeria will fail. His government cannot run away from the reality of a failing federation: saving it requires an honest admission that what we have is not sustainable and will no longer be condoned by its victims. His party promised restructuring: he and the party should deliver. Nigerians need to hold dialogue and reshape the unitary, “feeding bottle” federation in favour of fiscal federalism and decentralised policing. We insist that division of powers should be made in such a way that only matters such as foreign relations, defence, immigration, communications, currency and coinage and foreign trade are given to the centre and matters of regional interest like supervision of local government, education, jails, police, to the states.
But nothing will move unless Buhari knocks order and cohesion into his team and cabinet. Leaders everywhere know when to elevate national interest above personal loyalties or regional preferences. He needs to delegate more to Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo who is acclaimed to have acquitted himself well while holding the reins, and confront the challenges posed by an increasingly hostile, selfish and imperious National Assembly. He should dismantle the Presidential Villa cabal that has hobbled governance and weakened the war on corruption. As the commander-in-chief, Buhari should act like a general at war and take full charge before the 2019 election cycle.
