The State of World Population 2014, which was launched by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in New York on November 18 and in Lagos, November 25, has introduced a fresh dimension on how this country’s huge population size, especially the millions of active youth, can be converted from seeming demographic liabilities to demographic dividends. The 2014 estimated population growth rate was put at 2.47 per cent; birth rate was estimated at 38.03 births/1,000 population; death rate at 13.16 deaths/1,000 population, while urban population was put at 49.6 per cent of the total population as at 2011.
In a foreword in the SWOP 2014, Executive Director of UNFPA, Professor Babatunde Osotimehin said the world is home to 1.8 billion young people between the ages of 10 and 24, and the youth population is growing fastest in the poorest nations. He also noted that within this generation are 600 million adolescent girls with specific needs, challenges and aspirations for the future. The 126-page report titled “The Power of 1.8 Billion”, with sub-title “Adolescents, Youth and the Transformation of the Future”, showed that the world’s 1.8 billion young people can propel socio-economic development.
The UNFPA report also noted that if sub-Saharan African countries repeated the East Asian experience by making the right investments in young people, enabling them to participate in decisions that affect their lives and adopting policies to bolster economic growth, the region as a whole could realise a demographic dividend amounting to as much as $500 billion a year, for 30 years. Policies that empower young people, coupled with efforts to actively engage them in decisions that affect their lives and shape their future can mean the difference between a demographic trend that weighs economies down and one that buoys them – through a demographic dividend, according to the SWOP 2014.
The demographic dividend is the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population, 15 to 64, is larger than the non-working-age share of the population, 14 and younger or 65 and older. That potential can be enormous, provided supportive economic policies are in place and investments in human capital, particularly of young people, are substantial and strategic, the report stated. It noted that without a solid economic and policy framework to back it up, the demographic dividend may not be fully realised; and that for a country to realise a demographic dividend, it must first undergo a demographic transition, which means a shift from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality.
During the early stages of the demographic transition, mortality rates among children fall, mainly because of interventions such as safe water and sanitation. Better health for children improves the chances for their survival. The immediate effect of fewer child deaths is a larger cohort of children. When this occurs, households devote more of their resources to feeding and clothing their children and keeping them healthy, diverting resources that could be used to start up small businesses, expand agricultural production or invested in other ways.
Over the next generation, Nigeria’s demographic wave, if accompanied by the right policies and investments, could also treble per capita incomes in a generation. A report by the World Economic Forum (2014) stated that Nigeria’s GDP per capita would be almost 12 per cent higher by 2020 and 29 per cent higher by 2030, simply as a result of demographic shifts and increases in life expectancies. While the debate rages over how many people live in Lagos, which recently announced a figure of 21 million inhabitants, and that of Kano (the second largest city in Nigeria), the move to transform our country’s young population to demographic dividends should be of paramount importance to the current governments at all levels. That goal cannot wait.
