By unfolding plans to add 40 more nuclear missiles to its arsenal last week, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, erased any doubts that a new Cold War has emerged and the world had better take notice. Never since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990/91 have the world’s major powers come so close to the current state of mutual military provocations and the possibility of a conflagration. The threat is very real and the end result could be cataclysmic if cooler heads fail to douse the tension.
The current global tension is a culmination of the failed hopes that the end of communism and the half century of East-West confrontation that followed World War II would usher in a new era of peace and cooperation. That hope was shattered; first, by the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the United States-led multinational counter-invasion to expel the invaders; and, second, by the rise of a new type of terrorism in which fanatics, subscribing to the salafi vision of the creation of a global Islamic caliphate, launched jihads against governments, primarily the US and the West, initiating a new form of asymmetric warfare. But while terrorism initially attracted global unity of purpose in combating, re-emergent powers like Russia and China recently began to challenge the uni-polar global order and this has pitted them against the US and its Western and Asian allies. It has revived super-power rivalry and heightened tension in a world grappling with violence and terrorism, economic meltdown, climate change and traumatic change in emerging economies.
Putin especially, continues to up the ante. He said the 40 new nuclear-armed Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles would be ready this year and “are able to overcome even the most technically advanced anti-missile defence system.” This is a direct response to America’s deployment of defensive systems to its European allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, some of whom are threatened by menacing Russian military manoeuvres on their borders.
Putin, after serially opposing Western initiatives everywhere, had annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in March 2014 and immediately provoked Western sanctions. Since then, global tension has reached a new high and ignited a new arms race, which bodes ill for world peace.
European countries have asked NATO allies for closer military cooperation and begun a frantic effort to rearm. Poland, which has suffered annexation by Russia throughout its history, asked for and received the US and NATO military units and equipment, including Patriot Anti-Missile batteries and fighter aircraft. The Baltic States – Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, who only regained their independence from the collapsing Soviet Union 24 years ago – have also requested NATO assistance, re-introduced military conscription and begun defensive drills against possible invasion.
NATO said it intercepted over 400 Russian flights in 2014 alone and a military jet came within 10 feet of an American military plane near the Black Sea last month. Just as a move by Ukraine to join NATO provoked Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its sponsorship of a civil war there, Putin has also threatened Sweden if it heeds calls to join the alliance.
Can the world afford a new cold war? The answer is, no! The first cold war emerged after World War II when the communist Soviet Union carved out a sphere of influence in Europe and elsewhere. It was marked by political and military tension between the two blocs – Western and Eastern – and featured an arms race, proxy wars across the world, espionage, propaganda and technological competition, including a space race. Most dangerously, the era led to the accumulation of nuclear weapons and ICBMs, fostering the concept of deterrence and Mutually Assured Destruction: meaning that each power exercised restraint as they had enough to destroy each other in any nuclear war.
According to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, there are about 16,300 nuclear missiles in the world operated by 14 countries with roughly 10,000 in military arsenals. The rest are in storage or scheduled for disarmament and 4,000 are “operationally available,” of which 1,800 are on “high alert,” ready to be launched at short notice. The US is said to have 7,100 of which 2,080 are deployed; Russia over 8,000; United Kingdom 215; France 300, and China estimated at between 240 and 540. Hostility among the major powers also allows less stable Pakistan (120) and India (110) to have them as evident in a lack of unanimity at the United Nations Security Council’s efforts to curb Iran’s and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
Instead of spending on alleviating poverty, disease and crime, countries spent $1.75 trillion or 2.5 per cent of global GDP on the military in 2012, according to the Stockholm International Peace Institute, whereas 1 billion children live in poverty. Even “pacifist” nations like Japan, Germany and Sweden have, in response to rising tensions, raised military spending. While the US remains the highest defence spender, China spent (officially) $129 billion in 2014 and Russia $70 billion.
The world powers should pull back from the brink. The NATO response of deploying weapons, soldiers and joint military exercises in Europe and the South Asia has not deterred Putin or China, which has also been upsetting the existing order and its neighbours by territorial claims and military provocations in the South China Sea.
Putin should be told that he cannot recreate the Soviet empire by force. Countries are great today mostly by economic power, not brute force. The US and its allies should strike a careful balance of political and military pressure while making it clear that it will fulfil its treaty obligations if any NATO member is attacked.
The five permanent members of the Security Council, who have weakened the UN’s authority by brazen disregard for its resolutions and abuse of their veto, should rebuild the global body and re-empower it to become an effective arbiter in world affairs.
China and Russia should curb their ambitions and work more for global peace and prosperity rather than instinctively antagonising neighbours and rivals.
Americans and the West must not relent in their efforts to defend the modern civilisation from the crude behaviour of Putin . No matter what he is up to , show him that you people are well polished and advanced in methodology .