By Segun Adeleye
The second year has gone since Asiwaju Bola Tinubu was sworn in as the President of Nigeria, which translates to half of his tenure already spent!
At the first anniversary, the thinking in some quarters was that one year was too short to access the performance of any government. But now that it’s half of the tenure and behind the scene networking for him to return for the second term is in full gear, a comprehensive assessment should better be done now by anyone that cares or never.
Surprisingly, there is no meeting point between the two opinions on the performance of the President so far, and it seems there will never be a convergence, with those that are against him having nothing good to point at as achievement, while those in support are ready to sing his praise to the heavens.
Those on the left pole as expected are from the camp of the opposition parties who are yet and may not be able to cross to the ruling party, and of course millions of citizens who are negatively hit by the president’s economic policies in the last two years. It has been very difficult for many to comprehend why government cannot banish an extreme hardship that has even surpassed what they saw when they thought there could never be a worse clueless leadership in Nigeria.
Nigeria’s political system is yet to have a measurement mechanism where the performances of the leaders and the mood of the populace can be gauged as we see in many advanced democracies where opinion polls on leaders are released from time to time, and they are taken seriously, like a mirror to know the possibilities in future elections.
THE NAY SAYERS
The voice of those who seem to be discontented with the way things are going in the country no doubt is the loudest. The hardship voice is so loud in every corner such that if public opinion counts and if there is a remote possibility of having a free and fair election in the country, one would say that the President and his ruling party will be having sleepless nights.
It will be interesting to see anyone that can swear that there is a free and fair election in Nigeria. I believe the closest to a consensus will be that candidates will rig and win where they are popular. This can explain why some supporters will sing ‘ba tie dibo, oti wole’ (even if we don’t vote, you have won) during electioneering campaigns or the audacity that the PDP had then to boast that it will rule for 60 years.
The loud voice of discontentment in the last two years stems from the removal of fuel subsidies, Naira depreciation, spiraling inflation as high energy and food costs eroded the purchasing power of most Nigerians.
In the opinion of the former Vice President Atiku Abubarka who is occupying the extreme end of the opposition, in two years, the Tinubu’s administration has proven to be one of the most incompetent, disconnected, and anti-people governments in Nigeria’s democratic history.
He claimed a disregard for transparency, accountability, and responsible leadership, saying the government has not only deepened poverty, but set new records in wasteful public spending.
Pointing out that Nigeria’s total public debt in two years skyrocketed from 150 per cent to N144 trillion when compared to those of state governments where debt levels dropped from N5.86 trillion to N3.97 trillion, he concluded that Tinubu administration was the primary driver of Nigeria’s debt crisis.
His former boss, Former President Olusegun Obasanjo also shared same sentiment as he was quoted to have written in his book, Nigeria: Past and Future, that the Lagos-Calabar highway typifies waste and corruption.
He was quoted as saying, “Typical examples of waste, corruption and misplaced priority are the murky Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road on which the President had turned deaf ears to protests and the new Vice-President’s official residence built at a cost of N21 billion in the time of economic hardship to showcase the administration hitting the ground running and to show the importance of the office of the Vice-President. What small minds!”
Atiku’s political party, the PDP is also singing the same song while urging Tinubu to urgently address the issue of insecurity, reverse all economically suffocating policies and check the wholesale corruption, greed, unbridled profligacy, reckless misdirection of resources, arrogance in failure and totalitarian tendencies in his administration, which has shown itself as anti-people and impervious to the suffering of Nigerians.
Mr. Peter Obi, the Presidential candidate of the Labour Party has always been critical of President Tinubu’s administration, particularly on economic issues. He had expressed concerns about the country’s economic downturn, highlighting a significant decrease in GDP from $477 billion to $252 billion, which dropped the country from the biggest economy in Africa to number four.
SIMPLY THE BEST?
But in a sharp contrast, those that could see with the same lenses as the President, particularly those in the organised private sector are happy with what they are seeing so far.
Ironically, the removal of fuel subsidy which many are lamenting about is what the President’s admirers have embraced as one of his best achievements so far.
They believe that Tinubu’s economic reforms are promising despite being tough on Nigerians and businesses as they see positivities in the fuel subsidy and foreign exchange rate unification; Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiative to save over N2 trillion monthly by cutting petrol imports; Billions approved for the Student Loan Scheme; significant increase in government revenue with funds being channeled into large-scale infrastructure projects; rise in oil production; over $500 million in foreign direct investments; other social intervention programmes which include over N200 billion allocated to the newly established Consumer Credit Corporation; N570 billion disbursed to states for livelihood support; new national minimum wage to N70,000; increasing NYSC allowances to N77,000; tariff waivers on food and pharmaceutical imports among others.
Abdul Samad Rabiu the Founder and Chairman, BUA Group in an interview listed what the administration had done right to include the removal of the fuel subsidy which he said was the biggest economic scam in our history. He said the administration unified the foreign exchange market and restored stability, fairness, and confidence in the economy.
“These are the foundations of growth. Nigeria is full of potential. With the right leadership, which we now have, there is no limit to what we can achieve,” Rabiu said.
The Chairman of the Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote also shared the same view with Rabiu as he described Tinubu as a visionary leader, saying one of the Tinubu administration’s most transformative initiatives is the Naira for Crude Policy.
He said that the policy stood out as a clear testament to the administration’s commitment to economic recovery and national sovereignty.
He said, “This bold policy has enabled us to reduce product prices consistently and guarantee availability for the overall benefit of Nigerians. It has also helped significantly in stabilising the prices of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, LPG, and polypropylene to their lowest levels ever. The effect of this development is the stabilisation of our currency, a critical element in the development of economic policy and budgeting by businesses.”
He also lauded the administration’s Nigeria First Policy, which aimed to drastically reduce reliance on foreign goods and services, prioritising local patronage in investment decisions, business operations, and consumption habits.
Anambra State governor, Prof Charles Soludo from an opposition party also joined the camp of those that believed that Tinubu had been outstanding in the last two years. He said the President’s bold and visionary economic reform policies, have positioned the country on a trajectory of sustainable growth and development, despite temporary setbacks.
He said President Tinubu’s game-changing initiatives, including the removal of fuel subsidies, foreign exchange reforms, and significant investments in infrastructure development, demonstrate his decisive commitment to building a prosperous nation.
MAN SHALL NOT LIVE BY BREAD ALONE
As expected, the administration has not been slack at defending its record with the President dismissing critics of his legacy projects for being ignorant about how the government awarded them to contractors.
The President will be right if he borrows the phrase ‘man shall not live by bread alone’ to defend his administration’s thirst for legacy projects if one should reflect on the past when the country was turned into the dumping ground for imported products with strategic infrastructures left undeveloped.
The administration no doubt has been bullish and performed beyond expectations on infrastructure development if one should reflect on the time that these projects were conceived, like the Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway which was said to have been envisioned 47 years ago under the Shagari administration.
Another area where one can argue that the President has also surpassed expectation is the quality of appointment into strategic agencies as he did away with the past culture of mediocre in high places. I had in one of my early series, ‘If I were Tinubu: Setting a Tinubunomic agenda’, wrote that “ The President will need the right professionals to run the oil industry. Specifically, there will be a need for a total overhaul of the system. The new NNPC Limited should be made to advertise the positions of its CEO and other top directors to attract the right professionals from all over the world.”
When the President initially retained the old management of the NNPCL, I had thought that could only happen because he had seen what people from outside could not see. But the dramatic replacement of the management and board which could pass for a corporate coup has been applauded in many quarters as the right thing to do.
On sports, while the Tinubu’s administration has been commended for its development initiatives, particularly the reinstatement of the National Sports Commission (NSC) as the governing body for sports along with the timely payment of bonuses and allowances to athletes, its yet to be seen when these will translate to Nigeria winning medals in international events.
With the government also deserving credit for the bold tax reform agenda which is expected to become more pronounced when the new tax bills are signed into laws, it’s not also too difficult to identify the areas where hope is still hanging in the balance.
For instance, the claim of a repositioned health sector despite all odds has not been felt by a large segment of the masses, so also the initiatives to boost local food production, support farmers, and stabilise food prices have not yielded recognisable results, as the level of hunger in the land is still at the extreme.
Moreover, the government has not been convincing with its programmes to improve electricity supply as the grid keep on suffering multiple collapses, with most people still living with poor supply despite increase in tariff.
Also the blue economy that raised so much hope with the creation of the Marine and Blue Economy ministry has not lived up to the billing, with no sign of definite direction to harness the huge potential in the sector.
While the road infrastructure where huge resources have been committed also hold great prospect for the country, it is understandable that the impact may not be felt in the next one or two years.
TINUBU UNSTOPABLE?
Going forward, it will be difficult to expect any dramatic change in the posture of the president for the rest of his term, more so when the groundwork for his reelection has started.
By now, most Nigerians would have formed their opinions about who the president is, yet no one can absolutely boast that they know him. To say that he is stubborn or brave would be an understatement. Like a script in a mafia book, he has plotted his ways through the political trench to built a cult of followership and emerged as the most powerful and influential leader Nigeria has ever seen. His influence in the National Assembly is overwhelming, which would make it possible for him to push his agenda either legislatively or through Executive Orders. Unlike Obasanjo who would have instigated crisis in order to uproot their leadership as he would not like to share the limelight with anyone, Tinubu has allowed them the room to breath while pulling the string behind the scene to get his ways.
In a congratulatory message to the President on the second anniversary in office, President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio said Tinubu had restored the hope of Nigerians for a viable and sustainable nation through transformative and courageous leadership… he had placed Nigeria on a solid developmental pedestal using the Renewed Hope Agenda as his policy thrust.
There may be likelihood of positivities in the enormous power that the President has amassed if positively deployed as the case of Lee Kuan Yew, the Singapore’s first Prime Minister who transformed his nation from a developing country to a developed one through visionary leadership and pragmatic policies between 1959 and 1990. If Tinubu can push through his legacy projects and other reforms, he could achieve the feet of Yew with Nigeria. However, since he is human and as absolute power corrupts, the fear of abuse cannot be overlooked.
The opposition parties that could give him a run for his money are currently in a disarray. One will be expecting more manoeuvring to weakening them and lure away their remaining prominent leaders in the coming months, which will make victory look very obvious for the President in 2027 even if the masses are crying murder.
The minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, Wale Edun told foreign investors few months ago that the government through its veracious reforms had laid the foundation that would make the country the desired destination for private investors, saying the country is on the road to 7 per cent annual growth, while the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, similarly said Nigeria’s economy is on a path of stabilisation and recovery following months of tough but necessary reforms.
With assurances like these coming from government officials while the opposition parties are at disarray with defection waves sweeping through the South South up to the North, Nigerians can only buckle up for the rough ride that may go beyond 2027, with hope and prayer that light will eventually come at the end of the tunnel.
*Segun Adeleye is the President/CEO, World Stage Limited, the publisher of WorldStage Newsonline. He is the author of Tinubu The Audacity To Hope, So Long Too Long Nigeria among others.
