Major-Gen. Rogers Nicholas, Theatre Commander of Operation Lafiya Dole, the military shaft set up by the Buhari Presidency to pierce and shatter the Boko Haram insurgency, is probably entitled to his upbeat comments. And to be fair, it is not exactly the self-praise from the lizard, in Igbo culture, through Chinua Achebe novels: the lizard that falls from the high Iroko tree praises itself, even if no one else did.
From the territory-claiming Boko Haram of less than three years ago, the Nigerian Islamists, whose core ideology is the evil of Western education, have fallen into a mere ragtag army. Instead of attacking with fury, with poor Nigerian soldiers diving for cover, it would appear the other way now: Boko Haram in constant retreat.
Again, instead of the audacious missions of three years ago, when Boko Haram was even raiding police academies and military barracks, unleashing more havoc than it suffered, Boko Haram is now largely limited to soft targets, mostly by female suicide bombers, with declining casualty figures. Even raiding isolated police posts and confiscating arms and ammo in their armouries, appears beyond Boko Haram’s ken, capacity and capability right now. So are, it would appear, big market bombings and the wanton slaughter, that marked its earlier bombing exploits, of churches and later, mosques.
So, when inaugurating the Nigeria-Cameroon Military Joint Mission, against Boko Haram in Maiduguri, Borno State, Gen. Nicholas serenaded his officers and men, he wasn’t exactly just jiving.
“We have broken the heart and soul of Shekau’s group, taking over the camp and its environs,” he enthused. “They are on the run and we are pursuing them to wherever they go. This time around, there is no place for escape anywhere.”
He gave the present state of the insurrection: ”This is the last phase of the operation,” he declared at another event in Maiduguri, while handing over 82 citizens set free from Boko Haram captivity. “We are asking everybody in Borno State to cooperate by giving information about fleeing Boko Haram insurgents. People need to be vigilant,” he counselled. ”If you see any suspected person, report to the military or security agents.”
Contrast this upbeat report to the rather subdued tone of the latest release from the Ibrahim Shekau camp, and Gen. Nicholas’s report assumes even more credulity. Shekau, the crazed Boko Haram leader, whose swashbuckling arrogance and blood-cuddling boasts hall-marked the apex of the Islamists’ destructive orgy, sounded rather subdued and resigned. After a clatter of impotent instructions, for Boko Haram cells nationwide to “destroy” Nigeria and Cameroon, he declared himself frustrated at the turnout of things; adding he would rather die and go to “paradise”.
Tales of opposing factions on the Boko Haram side, with the camps bitterly opposed to one another, also suggest an insurrection which appears at its lowest ebb thus far, thus further suggesting a possible end. As each day dawns now, the sect appears to suffer more casualties, more captures and more surrenders. All these indices suggest a low morale of its fighting men.
On the civilian side, it is also a flurry of cheering news that Maiduguri, hitherto the vortex of the destruction, is living as normal a life as possible, suggesting a phase from war to an immediate post-war era. Markets that used to close by 4 pm now linger into the night, with buyers and sellers seemingly unperturbed by any Boko Haram menace. So progressively, the zest to live is taking over from the fear to cow.
Still, despite all these points, it is sheer hubris to declare the insurrection “completely defeated”. It is not.
For starters, Boko Haram is no conventional war, fought by equally matched armies, sizing each other up. Rather, it is guerrilla warfare in which the underdog is determined to play David, and unhorse and disgrace the colossal Goliath.
By that skewed rule of engagement, therefore, the sect just needs some piece of outlandish bombings, against some unprotected soft bellies, for the claim of “complete defeat” to come crashing down. Such tragedies are sure to grab big media headlines, partly because man is essentially a pain-avoiding animal; partly because much of the media loves sensation and titillation — and the bigger the tragedy, the bigger the headline.
Besides, Nigeria is such a vast territory that not every part of its extensive land is adequately policed. In many far-flung rural areas, security is most times driven by mutual good-neighbourlinesss, with everyone looking out for everyone and vice-versa. With the nearest police post miles away, such communities rely on mutual good faith to protect lives and assets. These communities provide soft target for Boko Haram murderous bullies; and they could be victims of danger by such premature declarations.
So, while acknowledging and appreciating how far the military has gone to rein in these terrorists, it isn’t bragging time yet.
Instead, the military should maintain the tempo to further decimate the insurgents. But as they haul in more Boko Haram captives, de-radicalisation should be the emphasis, such that those who are in would find it loath to ever go back into the jungle for such destructive causes.
Then, there is the key issue of future prospects. Boko Haram may have a theocratic surface. But deep inside, it would appear a poverty and economic problem. It is a complete loss of hope that would make a man “volunteer” to willfully end his life, and take other innocent souls with him, as a suicide bomber. So, as many of the Boko Haram cadres as possible should be trained in some jobs, so that they can earn a living and live a dignified life.
