It is a peculiar Nigerian tragedy that the ‘ceasefire’ supposedly agreed to with the Boko Haram insurgents and which the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh announced on behalf of the Federal Government the other day, has not only been officially denied by the sect as ‘a lie,’ it has actually been put to a lie by the events afterwards. As killings have continued and Nigeria’s territory continues to be occupied, the sect’s leader Abubakar Shekau, or one who looked like him, has declared that ‘in this war, there is no going back.’ With the blood of her citizens already being wantonly shed, Nigeria, indeed, did not need this kind of egg on her face.
The CDS claim, coming from so high up in the military command, was believed by most Nigerians. Knowing the way the war in the North-eastern part was going so embarrassingly wrong for government, Nigerians heaved a sigh of relief that at last, the government was beginning to get a handle on the Boko Haram problem. Even as some expressed doubt that so important a breakthrough was so casually handled and was not announced from the office of the Commander-in-Chief, it was nevertheless lent some credibility by the number of officials of government who corroborated it. The Coordinator of the National Information Centre, Mike Omeri issued a six-point press statement saying, among other things, that ‘the terrorists have announced a ceasefire in furtherance of their desire for peace. In this regard, the government of Nigeria has, in similar vein, declared a ceasefire’, and that ‘they indicated their desire for, and willingness to discuss and resolve all associated issues’. Principal Private Secretary to the President, Ambassador Hassan Tukur, Director of Defence Information Major Gen. Chris Olukolade, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Affairs, Doyin Okupe all claimed to be in the know.
On the other hand, discerning minds were sceptical of a ceasefire that could be announced unilaterally with one party speaking for the other on terms agreed. Secondly, it was curious that whereas the CDS ordered an immediate halt of hostile action by Nigerian forces, there was no concomitant action extracted from the adversary.
Third, there was no timeline for at least such very urgent issues as the terms for the release of the Chibok girls and the surrender of weapons. The sceptics, alas, have been proved right by the series of very hostile acts that Boko Haram have executed since the so-called ceasefire statement. With Nigeria’s guard let down as it were, the enemy exploited the opening; the troops have, in combat, been put to flight by the insurgents who have killed, burnt, looted, and captured more territories including Badeh’s hometown where their black flag now flies. Even now the destruction continues, and an otherwise cohesive and disciplined military is increasingly embarrassed into putting some of its own on trial for unprofessional acts. Surely, this was one ceasefire that never was.
There can be no doubt now that the government spoke too soon and needlessly raised the hopes of worried and wearied Nigerians in general and the parents of the abducted Chibok girls in particular. But this CDS, and the government of which he is a part, are indeed wont to speak too soon. On assumption of office, he once promised to sort the Boko Haram issue out in a few months, the military he heads once declared that the abducted girls had been released, at another time the world was told the girls had been located in the Sambisa forest. Regardless of whatever pressure is on the military to get results, false hopes are unhelpful in this dreadful matter of Boko Haram insurgency.
The impression is strong that Nigeria is not asserting with the necessary force, the full authority and power of the state in dealing with Boko Haram. How can several local governments spanning three states be taken over and administered by a different authority and power styling itself an ‘Islamic caliphate’ and nothing can be done about it? How can it be that federal authorities would claim to have reached an agreement with insurgents only for the latter to thumb its nose at government by sustained acts of destruction? How can the Nigerian government continue in self-deceit into ‘negotiations’ – whatever that means – even as its capacity to meet its constitutional responsibilities to protect the territorial integrity of the state and assure the security and welfare of the people are being put in doubt?
In principle, there is nothing wrong with negotiating with the insurgents; but with all the soft and hard power available to it, there is everything wrong with the Nigerian state negotiating with insurgents from what appears to be a position of weakness. It is not done. It must not happen.
Really, there appears to be a dearth of experienced hands to manage this national problem that is fast becoming a national embarrassment at many levels. The management of information is consistently poor and uncoordinated; the management of the negotiation process is unwieldy and similarly shoddy. The outcome of all these is that little credible information is available to Nigerians, and little has been achieved either by negotiation or by force. Yet, money, borrowed or not, is being spent, to order arms, to fund negotiating teams or to do one thing or the other in the search for peace.
The Presidency must quickly get its acts together and put together competent teams to design results-oriented strategies against the Boko Haram.
