Europe and indeed the rest of the world are still reeling from the shock decision of the British people to exit their membership of the European Union. A historic referendum saw those calling for an exit from the 28-country union claiming a narrow victory of a 51.9 per cent to 48.1 per cent margin, in a decision that has shaken both the political and economic foundation of one of Europe’s biggest and most influential economies.
For a decision that has no precedent in the history of the EU, it was obvious that the exit would trigger a chain of uncontrollable reactions, driven mostly by uncertainty. The uncertainty that hallmarked the exercise was most noticeable almost immediately the results started trickling out, pointing in the direction of a Leave victory – otherwise known as a Brexit victory. In response to the referendum outcome, the pound sterling reportedly took a tumble by up to 10 per cent against the United States dollar, the lowest since 1985, before finally rallying to settle at eight per cent. The reverberation in the stock market was also significant as investors rushed to drop European shares in anxiety following the shock decision.
As it stands, investors who saw the British market from the prism of the larger European market of a 500 million population are still uncertain about what the future holds for a Britain that is outside the EU. A Britain of diminished status is what many are seeing; but this is based purely on speculation as others are also seeing a stronger, more vibrant and independent-minded Britain that can take decisions believing its destiny is wholly in its own hands.
While many predict loss of jobs and foreign direct investment, especially with the United Kingdom said to be harbouring more headquarters of non-EU companies than Germany, France, Switzerland and the Netherlands put together, others believe the right to implement a stricter border control, absent under the free movement policy of the EU, will actually keep available jobs only for the Britons, with fewer competition from the “job-grabbing” immigrants from across the borderless EU countries.
Going forward, however, it is believed that the greatness of Britain will depend heavily on the ability to negotiate favourable free trade terms with partners across the globe, including those within the EU itself. The options include forging alliances with emergent markets such as China, India, Brazil and even the Commonwealth countries, while also strengthening ties with traditional partners such as the US and Japan. There may also be the need to look towards Africa, an area that is currently under the firm grip of China.
To achieve this, there has to be a strong, stable and focused polity. Yet, it is in the political realm that the future tends to look even more uncertain, with the two major political parties that stuck their necks out in the campaign to either remain or leave the union now facing serious leadership crises. While the Prime Minister, David Cameron of the Conservative Party, who spearheaded the campaign to remain in Europe has offered to resign with effect from October, the Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who also mounted a strong remain campaign, is facing a leadership challenge from his party’s parliamentarians, who are calling for his resignation.
Even among the conservatives, Boris Johnson, the former London mayor, who was at the head of the Leave campaign, and was favoured to succeed Cameron as the next prime minister, was forced to withdraw from the succession race. But the leadership tussle is not limited to the two major parties, as the leader of the United Kingdom Independent Party, Nigel Farage, who also spearheaded the Leave effort, threw in the towel on Monday, saying, “My aim in being in politics was to get Britain out of the European Union.” All three parties are now in search of leadership, even as the critics of the Leave campaigners are saying that there was no post-referendum plan for the country by those who wanted to quit.
One thing that should however be expected from the current state of anxiety and uncertainties is the effect that Brexit is likely to have in this era of a resurgence of nationalism and separatist movements around the world, including here in Nigeria. It is believed that such groups as the Catalans, agitating for a breakaway from Spain, and the disgruntled elements in Nigeria’s flawed federalism that are currently seeking self- determination, will be further energised by the British action. Already, Scotland, which two years ago failed, through a referendum, to break away from the UK, is talking up a fresh referendum for the same purpose.
The Scots are particularly bitter that the tyranny of the majority is forcing them to abide by a decision that does not reflect their wishes. About 62 per cent of Scots, an overwhelming majority, had voted to stay in the EU. This is why the First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, who is also the leader of the Scottish National Party, has given notice that another referendum of Scottish independence could not be ruled out, just as the Indigenous People of Biafra are calling for what they call “Biafrexit.”
However, like the Scots did during their referendum, the British have shown once again that it is better to opt out of an unfavourable union, rather than remain as a disgruntled member. It does not necessarily have to take the same course as South Sudan, which had to fight a six-decade war before achieving its goal of self-determination. A referendum is always an easy and bloodless way of taking such a decision.
And as the case of the Scotland referendum showed, it is not always that a referendum would lead to secession. Even though the British referendum has continued to attract protests from the “losers,” the democratic principle of the majority carrying the day has been achieved. What everyone is awaiting now is the triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that allows a member to voluntarily opt out of the union. It is only after that has been done that the pall of uncertainty that currently engulfs Britain will be removed.
