For Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, the population time bomb has been ticking away ceaselessly; and the strain on the economy is also becoming unbearable. With poverty galloping at an unprecedented rate, population in Nigeria is fast becoming a liability rather than an asset. Yet, the economic managers have chosen to ignore the impending catastrophe.
But the problem of excess population and how its interplay with the economy affects the level of poverty in the country will persist, until it is finally confronted and dealt with pragmatically. That is what FSDH Research, an arm of FSDH Merchant Bank, has revealed in its recent report, “Final Judgement on Performance of the Nigerian Economy: Implications.” According to the report, the Nigerian economy is not expanding at a rate that can create job opportunities for “the unemployed, which the National Bureau of Statistics put at 21 million” as of the third quarter of 2018.
Although the Nigerian economy has been picking up after the recent recession, it has not been growing sufficiently to sustain job creation. “The Nigerian economy is growing slower than the growth rate in its population, an indication of growing poverty,” FSDH said. The economy posted a growth rate of just 1.9 per cent in the past year. Against a population growth rate of 2.67 per cent, it is not surprising that the impact of the escape from recession is not being sufficiently felt. There may not even be much to cheer this year as the World Bank forecast shows that the economy would grow by just 2.2 per cent. Even that will be dependent on the price of oil, which is the country’s main source of revenue.
In line with the FSDH perspective, Nigeria was last year declared the poverty capital of the world. In a June 2018 report, compiled by Brookings Institution, based on the World Poverty Clock, Nigeria was declared home to 87 million “extremely poor” people, overtaking India, which previously occupied the top position. The Asian country, the fastest growing major economy in the world, at 7.3 per cent, according to World Bank projections, has now reduced its population of the extremely poor to 73 million. With the number of Nigerians falling into extreme poverty growing by six people every minute, the number is estimated to have since hit 91.6 million, going by the latest figures released in February.
With a population estimated at 193 million by 2016, it means that almost 50 per cent of Nigerians now live on less than $1.9 per day, which is the World Bank extreme poverty threshold. On the other hand, India, with a population more than six times that of Nigeria, only 5.3 per cent of the people live in extreme poverty. After Africa’s most populous country wrested that dubious title from India, the second most populous country in the world, it should be obvious that there is a link between unrestrained population growth and poverty. It is a question of an expanding population having to make do with limited or diminishing resources. To deal with the Nigerian situation, there is the need to tackle both the economy and the population size.
FSDH has canvassed growing the Nigerian economy at the rate of more than six per cent, with the introduction of right policies. It believes that the government should target the most influential sectors that drove performance in 2018, specifically, the information and communications sector, agriculture, manufacturing, mining and quarrying, among many other sectors.
But beyond just looking at the economy, it is important to do something about uncontrolled population growth. People should not continue to procreate without adequate provision for the proper upbringing of the children. In 1979, when China discovered that its massive population was beginning to pose a problem to the economy, the one-child-per-family policy was introduced, followed by rigorous family planning. Incentives were given to those who could stick with that policy, while those who flouted it were punished with heavy taxation and loss of privileges.
With the Chinese population now estimated at 1.42 billion, it can only be imagined what would have happened had the policy not been introduced and enforced for three decades. Although now relaxed, under that policy, China became industrialised and, from a largely rural, poverty-stricken economy, it overtook Japan to become the second largest economy in the world. A XINXUANET publication, quoting the country’s National Bureau of Statistics, said 740 million people in rural areas were lifted out of poverty between 1978 and 2017, at an average of about 19 million persons per year. Not surprisingly, the poverty rate dropped 94.4 percentage points within that period.
If Nigeria’s population growth remains unchecked, the country is set to become the third most populous country in the world in 31 years’ time. The United Nations projects that by 2050, Nigeria’s population would leapfrog that of the US to queue behind India and China. That would be a recipe for disaster if nothing is done to slow down the rate of growth.
A dangerous mix of religious and cultural beliefs added to illiteracy is to blame. The culture of marrying several wives and procreating indiscriminately needs to be moderated. Nobody has a right to bring a child into the world without adequate preparation for its upbringing to be able to compete favourably with its peers from other parts of the world.
The Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, was able to link polygamy, poverty and terrorism when he said, “Those of us in the North have all seen the economic consequences of men who are not capable of maintaining one wife marrying four. They end up producing 20 children, not educating them, leaving them on the streets, and they end up as thugs and terrorists.”
No one could have captured it better. The Nigerian government has to act fast by introducing policies to strike the right balance between the population and the economy.
