More than 70 years after the first atomic bombs were dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to effectively bring an end to World War II, the world now teeters on the brink of another potentially catastrophic war. Unless commonsense prevails, the United States is about to launch attacks on North Korea, a country that is not only believed to have acquired nuclear capability but has also been bragging about its readiness to put it to use. This makes the prospect of a nuclear confrontation more real now than ever.
The latest round of sabre-rattling is not unconnected with Pyongyang’s usual military threats towards its immediate neighbours as well as the US and the entire world. Tension has ratcheted up to unprecedented levels around the world since North Korea, a country that has made the acquisition of nuclear technology capability its utmost priority, test-launched its latest Intercontinental Ballistic Missile on July 28. It marked the second of such tests in a month, having launched its first ICBM on July 4, as Americans were marking their 241st Independence Day.
While Pyongyang has never hidden its aggression towards neighbouring South Korea and Japan, its main adversary has remained the US, which it has been targeting in its nuclear programme. The July 4 test-launch actually served as the most palpable threat because, for the first time, experts believed that the reclusive country had achieved the capacity to launch a missile that could strike at Hawaii and mainland US. The latest fear is that North Korea “has already achieved the miniaturisation of nuclear weapons into warheads and has acquired nuclear warheads,” Japan’s 500-page defence ministry White Paper said.
Reacting to the latest development, top US officials have promised tough measures against the country and its war-mongering supreme leader, Kim Jong-Un, which may not preclude a military action. While the US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikky Haley, warned of the inevitability of war if the regime continued its aggressive actions, the White House National Security Adviser, H.R. McMaster, stated clearly that the actions included launching a “preemptive war.”
But the US President, Donald Trump, who had earlier warned of dire consequences of Kim’s rascality and continued threat to the US, came out with the strongest warning of all, saying, “North Korea (had) best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire, fury and frankly power the likes of which this world has never seen before.”
The prospect of war is further heightened by what experts and analysts see as a red line conveyed by Trump’s threats. A US senator, John McCain, a war veteran who heads the Senate Armed Forces Committee, has said that such statements are only made by a president who is ready to match his words with action. “The great leaders I’ve seen don’t threaten unless they’re ready to act and I’m not sure President Trump is ready to act,” he warned.
Not deterred in whatever way by Trump’s boasts, Kim has already responded by threatening that America no longer has the monopoly of preemptive strikes. To further provoke the US and dare the UN, which came up with some of its toughest sanctions so far against the impoverished country, a defiant Kim said he would conclude plans by mid August to launch four mid-range ballistic missiles over Japan to drop within 18 to 24 miles of Guam, “to signal a crucial warning to the US.” Guam, a sovereign US territory with a population of 160,000, has a strategic airfield and a naval station.
Dealing with a country that boasts an impressive arsenal of military weapons, ranging from nuclear to chemical, biological weapons as well as conventional weapons of warfare, the US is not unmindful of the danger involved in the outbreak of war. The Secretary of Defence, James Mattis, said any such war would be catastrophic, which is why, despite the trading of bellicose rhetoric, a diplomatic option of dealing with North Korea has not been taken off the table.
For the first time, China, a major ally of Pyongyang, has promised to implement fully the latest round of sanctions against the country. China, with whom North Korea carries out 90 per cent of its trade, and Russia are considered vital to any efforts to talk the country, already the most sanctioned in the world, out of its nuclear pursuit. If well implemented, the sanctions are expected to cost Pyongyang a third of its $3 billion annual foreign exchange earnings. Evidence of the willingness of both China and Russia to cooperate started from their refusal to veto the resolutions at the UN Security Council. China has also announced a ban on North Korea’s coal, iron and seafood.
But how is the world going to stop Kim, who is like a bull in a China shop? Stating his country’s position, the North Korean Foreign Minister, Ri Yong Ho, was quoted as saying that his country would “under, no circumstances, put the nukes and ballistic rockets on the negotiation table,” insisting it was the only way of teaching the Americans a “severe lesson.” Citing the cases of Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Muammar Gaddaffi of Libya as examples of leaders who were dethroned with the help of the US after renouncing their nuclear ambitions, Kim believes the only way to deter the Americans from pursuing a regime change agenda is to achieve nuclear capability.
While his father, Kim Jong-Il, and grandfather, Kim Il-sung, could occasionally be persuaded to suspend their nuclear ambition in exchange for food aid, Kim Jong-un has not been persuaded to follow that path. As the world waits with bated breath, no one can say for sure what the next line of action would be in the Korean Peninsula.
But with the North Korean leader and the US president now standing eyeball-to-eyeball, the world is looking to see who will blink first. Perhaps Kim will, having already announced a change of mind in his plans to attack Guam. But China has a big role to play in stopping Kim and should be encouraged to do so.
