If ever there was a moment that demanded clarity, courage and competence in Nigeria’s economic management, this is it. Therefore, the appointment of Taiwo Oyedele as Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy cannot be just another cabinet reshuffle; it must count in substance and significance.
Oyedele, the chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, was appointed by President Bola Tinubu as the Under Minister of Finance on March 16. On April 21, he replaced Wale Edun as the Finance Minister.
As he begins this new tenure, the numbers are gloomy, the system is challenged, and Nigerians’ patience is wearing thin. If he fails to reset Nigeria’s fiscal trajectory, the consequences will be felt in failed businesses, abandoned projects, joblessness and deepening poverty.
Clearly, he must start by clearing up the confusion that has defined the budgeting process and execution since 2023.
A government that rolls over 70 per cent of its capital budget is admitting failure. Nigeria is running multiple budgets concurrently with the 2026 plan, still carrying aspects from 2023. This anomaly must end.
For a man who built his reputation on tax reform, policy clarity and systems thinking, Oyedele must confront this dysfunction head-on. Therefore, his first task is to restore order to Nigeria’s fiscal architecture.
One of the most damaging features of Nigeria’s current economic framework is the disconnect between fiscal and monetary policy.
While the Central Bank is tightening aggressively to fight inflation by raising interest rates, the government is borrowing heavily, both domestically and externally, at high interest rates.
The result has been skyrocketing debt service costs, up to 95 per cent of revenue in 2025, a crowded-out private sector, and an economy still struggling.
This contradiction cannot continue. Oyedele must forge real coordination with the monetary authorities. Fiscal policy cannot be expansionary while monetary policy is restrictive. That is how the authorities strangle growth while pretending to fight inflation.
More importantly, he must confront the absurdity highlighted by economists such as Ayo Teriba. Nigeria is borrowing externally, while over $20 billion sits idle in Cash Reserve Ratio balances at the Central Bank. In a country drowning in debt, leaving such liquidity sterilised while paying high interest on loans is indefensible.
China, Russia, Cambodia and Pakistan have routinely deployed such quarantined funds to fund development projects and support industrial policies. Nigeria cannot be blind to such opportunities.
Unlocking even a portion of these funds, carefully and transparently, could ease financing pressures, reduce borrowing costs and inject much-needed liquidity into productive sectors.
Combined with the reported N43 trillion in dormant public assets, this signals that Nigeria is not broke; only badly managed.
Oyedele’s credibility rests heavily on the sweeping tax reforms he helped design. On paper, they are bold, even transformative, emphasising simplified tax codes, relief for low-income earners, incentives for SMEs, and a shift toward fairness and efficiency.
While some early gains have been recorded, Nigeria is a graveyard of well-written policies that died during implementation. That must not happen again.
The real work begins with ensuring that these reforms actually translate into revenue growth without suffocating businesses.
Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains comparatively low, hovering around 13.5 per cent. Raising it toward the African average of 16–18 per cent is achievable, but only if compliance improves and trust is rebuilt.
This requires a delicate balance. Overzealous enforcement will kill the reforms before they mature. Nigerians have long memories of harassment, multiple taxation and opaque processes. If the new system becomes another tool for extortion, compliance will collapse.
Technology must be the backbone of the tax reforms and any other sustainable revenue drive. Digital tax systems, e-invoicing, and data integration are both essential upgrades and safeguards against corruption and inefficiency.
Apart from revenue, Nigeria also has a spending problem.
The current budget chaos is perhaps the most glaring indictment of Nigeria’s fiscal system. Late MTEF submissions, rushed budget approvals, unrealistic assumptions, and massive project insertions by the legislature have turned budgeting into a ritual devoid of discipline. Therefore, Oyedele must impose order.
The January–December budget cycle must be restored as a binding rule. The MTEF must be prepared and submitted on time, with realistic assumptions grounded in actual performance, not wishful projections.
Equally important is coordination with the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning. The current approach of working in silos is clearly self-defeating. Fiscal policy cannot succeed when planning and finance operate like rival camps instead of partners.
Then there is the scandal of capital budget execution. Releasing only a fraction of allocated funds while rolling over the rest amounts to sabotage as contractors go unpaid, projects stall, and costs escalate.
His predecessor reportedly faced such problems, as revenue projections derailed last year, resulting in a rumoured falling out with the President and his eventual exit.
Therefore, Oyedele must take full control of capital expenditure mechanisms. Fund releases must be timely, predictable and transparent.
Real-time tracking systems should be deployed to monitor project execution. Anything less is an invitation to waste and corruption.
He must confront the elephant in the room: budget padding. When 11,122 projects worth N6.93 trillion can be smuggled into the 2025 budget, fiscal discipline becomes a joke. This is where political courage will be tested. If he cannot push back against this practice, his reforms will amount to little more than elegant paperwork.
The minister must address Nigeria’s precarious debt situation, with total debt stock standing at N159.28 trillion or roughly N724,000 per citizen as of early 2026.
When N15.8 trillion of the projected N34.33 trillion revenue goes into debt servicing, the country is effectively working for its creditors. This is unsustainable.
While Tinubu has declared that debt is not leprosy, Oyedele must nonetheless shift the financing strategy decisively.
Borrowing should be the last resort, not the default option. Before taking on new debt, the government must exhaust internal resources, including asset sales, securitisation, public-private partnerships, and capital market instruments.
Selling or restructuring state-owned enterprises, especially perennial drainpipes like the refineries, is long overdue. Holding onto them for sentimental or political reasons is costing the country dearly.
At the same time, borrowing that does occur must be tied strictly to infrastructure that generates economic returns, such as in power, transport, and industrial corridors.
Even if revenue improves and borrowing declines, Nigeria will remain stuck unless it addresses the chronic waste embedded in its public finance system.
Poor contract planning, inflated costs, and abandoned projects reflect systemic failures. For example, the N393.29 billion allocated for 1,477 streetlights, averaging N266.4 million per light, in the 2025 budget highlights the recurring pattern of corruption and abuse.
Oyedele must enforce value-for-money principles across all government spending.
Procurement processes should be transparent, competitive and technology-driven. Project selection must be based on clear economic priorities, not political patronage.
This is where fiscal reform meets governance reform. Without accountability, no amount of revenue growth will translate into development.
Nigeria cannot tax its way to prosperity without growing its productive base. Fiscal policy must actively support economic diversification.
This means targeted incentives such as tariff waivers for industrial machinery and inputs, tax credits for manufacturing, and strategic support for high-growth sectors. It also means fixing the choke points in trade and logistics.
Customs and port operations remain a nightmare for businesses. Delays, inefficiencies and corruption drive up costs and erode competitiveness. Technology must be deployed aggressively to streamline processes, reduce human discretion and improve transparency.
Beyond this, the government should take a more strategic approach to investment by supporting critical industries and innovative start-ups that can drive future growth. Other countries have done this successfully; Nigeria cannot afford to lag.
Oyedele comes into office with an impressive résumé and high expectations. But Nigeria’s problem has never been a shortage of smart people or good ideas. It has been a failure to execute. This is his real test.
He must align fiscal and monetary policy, enforce discipline in budgeting, implement tax reforms effectively, manage debt prudently, eliminate waste, and use fiscal tools to unlock growth. None of these tasks is easy, but all of them are urgent.
If he succeeds, Nigeria could finally begin to escape its fiscal trap. If he fails, the country will slide deeper into a cycle of debt, stagnation and missed opportunities.
