The political mood in Germany is one of disbelief. Leading politicians are working feverishly to respond to new realities following a weekend that showed Europe’s largest country that the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally changed. Most importantly, this means adopting a clearer stance, especially towards the US and Russia. And strengthening the military.
“For the foreseeable future, the US will not be a reliable partner for Europe in terms of values and interests,” political scientist Carlo Masala told Deutschlandfunk public radio on Monday morning. “But in some cases, they will certainly have more interests in common with us than with other countries,” Masala added. “In such cases, I believe that Europe will be more attractive to the US as a partner if it is independent and sovereign,” said Masala, a professor at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich.
This comes in the wake of the major scandal that unfolded at the White House in Washington last Friday, when US President Donald Trump lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in front of live cameras and renounced any ties of solidarity with him.
As Claudia Major of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs told Deutschlandfunk, what this means for Germany is that “we have to realize that our most important ally is no longer acting like an ally, but is instead becoming a security risk for Europe.”
And all this transpired just as Germany was beginning to form a new government, after the federal elections eight days earlier, most likely under the leadership of conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz. A politician who has never held public office before.
Just at the moment when Germany finds itself in political limbo. The incumbent chancellor, Olaf Scholz (SPD), was not in the spotlight when French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set the agenda at a meeting in London on Sunday. They expressed their support for Zelenskyy and discussed the possibility of proposing a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
But there are reasons why Germany has adopted a rather restrained approach: After a new election, the ongoing chancellor remains in office on an interim basis until a successor has been elected. During this transition period, however, the outgoing chancellor is usually expected to refrain from making far-reaching political decisions and statements. And anything that could be said about Russia, Ukraine and the US is far-reaching.
Nevertheless, Social Democratic Party (SPD) leader Lars Klingbeil said on Monday: “The next German government has a great responsibility in terms of European policy. Together with Poland and France, it will depend on these three countries to create stability in Europe.” Klingbeil, who is rumored to be in line to become Germany’s next foreign minister, called the Washington scandal a “wake-up call.”
Suddenly, steps that seemed unthinkable just a short time ago are being openly discussed in Berlin. There is talk of huge new multi-billion-euro programs. The goal is to enable the Bundeswehr to defend the country on its own, without the US and in cooperation with other European countries. And to continue to support the Ukraine in its fight against Russia, even if the massive American support that has been provided to date were to be completely or partially withdrawn. Sums of up to €400 billion ($419 billion) have been mentioned. This is money that Germany will have to borrow.
This is being called a “special fund.” However, this would require a two-thirds majority in the German parliament, the Bundestag. And that would have to come from the politicians who are still in the Bundestag that will be formed in 2021.
This is because the new Bundestag, which will hold its inaugural session no later than March 25th, does not have the necessary two-thirds majority to pass such a resolution, mainly due to the large number of votes cast for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left Party.
By Easter, Friedrich Merz aims to form a new government between his party, the CDU, its Bavarian sister party the CSU, and the SPD. But first Merz must hold further negotiations with the SPD about a possible coalition. On Monday, he said in Berlin: “We want to do something for the Bundeswehr, an issue that became abundantly clear again last Friday after the events at the White House in Washington. But we have not yet reached an agreement. I can’t make any predictions.”
The pressure to reach such an agreement is higher than ever before. Now, the CDU/CSU and the SPD want to concentrate on the talks to form a new government.
On Wednesday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will invite his likely successor Friedrich Merz to the Chancellery to discuss the next steps in private. This includes the most important question facing Germany at the moment: How can the country ensure its own security, a task for which the US has been primarily responsible since the end of the war in 1945? – DW.
