Nigeria’s rapidly increasing population is a powder keg waiting to explode. And, for a people shackled by base sentiments, age-long cultural practices and religious beliefs, there is no easy way out. This issue resurfaced at the House of Representatives recently when lawmakers clashed openly while considering a motion sponsored by Gabriel Kolawole on the need to control Nigeria’s population. The time is ripe to dissect the issue dispassionately in the interest of the country.
Not unusually, emotions beclouded the real issues when Kolawole tabled the motion, “Need for the Federal Government to curb population explosion in Nigeria,” at a plenary session. Turmoil greeted it, with lawmakers myopically split along religious lines. While Christian lawmakers argued in favour, their Muslim colleagues condemned it, describing it as “anti-Islam.” This motion should not be given short shrift. Nigeria is a secular country, not a theocracy and it is disheartening when federal lawmakers refuse to appreciate this.
It is discomfiting when lawmakers, who are an integral part of the political elite, descend to such crass sentimentality on a crucial national issue. More than a decade ago, Nigeria had adopted a population policy to lessen the impact of unbridled population growth. The National Population Policy 2004 aimed at reducing the nation’s birth rate to two per cent (or lower by 2015).
Among other targets, the policy is also meant to “achieve a reduction in total fertility rate of at least 0.6 children every five years, and increase the modern contraceptive prevalence rate by at least two percentage points per year.” These are lofty goals that have been abandoned. Instead of being emotional, the lawmakers should focus on how these measures could be implemented.
There are two extremes in population trends. Both are a sticking point. The first leg is falling birth rate. Births rates are declining in Japan, China, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Russia. This gives rise to ageing population, heavy pension payouts to retirees and inability to fill job vacancies. To fill this void, Japan is depending on robots and machines. On its part, China has just scrapped its one-child policy after 35 years of strict enforcement.
Nigeria, like most African countries, falls into the second extreme: that of rapid population growth. Data from United States-based Population Reference Bureau shows that though Nigeria is the seventh most populated country in the world at 170 million, the country is projected to reach 433 million by 2050 if the current annual birth rate of 3.7 per cent is left unchecked. By that time, Nigeria would only be behind India and China, and its population would have outstripped that of the US, which is currently the third most populous country with 320 million people. However, Nigeria is constrained by a land mass of 923,628 square kilometres, whereas America’s land mass is 10 times larger. The US also has a $17 trillion GDP compared to Nigeria’s $568 billion.
In 1950, Nigeria had a population of only 37 million people. But three years after independence in 1960, the figure had climbed to 54 million, according to the National Population Commission. With better access to health care and oil wealth, the country had ballooned to 88 million by 1991, and 140 million by 2006. Nigeria is suffering from uncontrolled population growth in virtually every area of life, forcing resources and opportunities to thin out. This trend is worrisome. Rabiu Kwankwaso, a former Kano State governor, condemned the practice in 2013, accusing Northerners of fuelling the al-majairi system by having too many children they could not take care of.
The impact of this rise is glaring. In 1981, about 56,000 candidates took the University Matriculation Examination. In 2015, 1.47 million sat the same examination; less than 800,000 gained admission. Rapid population expansion, especially in the North, has had deleterious effects. UNICEF estimates that 10.5 million Nigerian children are out of school, a figure some authorities have recently adjusted to 15 million. This is the highest in the world. Not even India, which might soon overtake China as the most populous country in the world, is contending with this time bomb.
Nigeria records very high maternal and infant mortality rates. The United Nations Population Fund said two weeks ago that 100 women die daily in northern Nigeria during childbirth. The country is afflicted with the highest number of children born with HIV in the world. Other health indices are also depressing, with Nigerians who can afford it taking to medical tourism overseas at an annual cost of $500 million. The National Bureau of Statistics puts the unemployment rate at 24.1 per cent. It says 1.8 million graduates are entering the labour market annually; 5.3 million youths are jobless. The economy is in a tailspin, arising from a 60 per cent plunge in oil income over the past year; inflation is 9.4 per cent and the value of the naira is depreciating daily at the foreign exchange market.
All this should nudge Nigeria to put its house in order. Many studies tie development to optimum population: the higher the population, the stiffer the competition for resources and the worse off the people are. Thus, sensible countries work at keeping down their population.
Brazil used to be in the same grim situation. Even as late as 2000, Brazil had a birth rate of 2.4 per cent. But the government there developed people-friendly policies that were strong on informing the populace about the dangers of unfettered procreation, and the use of contraceptive methods. Although Brazil is fifth now with 202 million people, it has lowered its birth rate to 1.9 per cent, the same belt with developed economies of the world.
The population mess is already upon us. As it is, emotions, religion and tradition have failed us, and the hard, cold reality bites. The government, with stakeholders like the Planned Parenthood Federation of Nigeria and all tiers of hospitals, has to enlighten the citizens on the importance of reducing our birth rate and implement the 2004 national population policy.
